SCHEDULE PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT BY USING WEIBULL ANALYSIS

In every project, construction managers regularly monitor projects to ensure that the project performance is under control. Traditionally, the earned value method (EVM) is widely used tool to control and monitor schedule performance using the schedule and cost performance indices which compare the budgeted cost of work performed to what was originally scheduled or what is actually expended. However, its application to schedule performance forecasting has been limited due to poor accuracy in predicting project durations. Recently, several EVM-based schedule forecasting methods were introduced. This paper presents a statistical approach, namely Weibull analysis, to evaluate stochastically the schedule performance of construction. This can be used in conjunction with the EVM to enhance the evaluation and control of schedule performance. The objective of this study is to discuss and present the applicability of Weibull analysis to evaluate stochastically the schedule performance of construction project. This study focuses on schedule performance with probabilistic method. Currently available methods, for example, the critical path method (CPM) and earned value management (EVM) are deterministic and fail to account for the inherent uncertainty in forecasting and project schedule performance. In this paper, the applicability of Weibull analysis for evaluating and comparing the performance of the building project is presented. The various steps in the analysis are discussed along with an example.